1999; Table 1). Although the FBMP primarily targets 52 species (not including Evening Grosbeak), it yields data on occurrence and relative abundance for more than 100 species at those sites. Nest predators include Common Raven (Corvus corax; Bekoff et al. Wershler. Welsh. American Birds58:26-33. Flannigan. Similar to the CBC, ÉPOQ winter data cover the species’ entire wintering area in Quebec (Cyr and Larivée 1995). and B. Byers. In northwestern Canada, mature mixedwood forests are also managed using techniques that reduce tree diversity in favour of Trembling Aspen stands (Kirk et al. comm. 6. 2011. Also on the first floor is a private office/study. 2011. Data obtained in response to a request made to the Atlas office. Future area burned in Canada. Machtans, C.S., K.J. Observatoire d’oiseaux de Tadoussac (QC) data suggest that Evening Grosbeak numbers were low from 1998 to 2011, but have increased considerably from 2012 to 2015. Both parents feed the nestlings. Pinzon, C.J. On coniferophagous species of Choristoneura (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) in North America. Direction de la protection des forêts, Service de la gestion des ravageurs forestiers. 2006). Manitoba Breeding Bird Atlas. Goetz, P.S.A. A total of eight species and 11 subspecies of Spruce Budworm exist in North America (Freeman 1967), with C. feumiferana found from Alberta east to the Maritimes, and Jack Pine Budworm (C. pinus pinus) and a complex of C. occidentalis, C. biennis and C. lambertiana found in southern Alberta and British Columbia (Lumley and Sperling 2010). Evening Grosbeaks attracted to vehicles. Callaghan, J.E. However, the latter are an important food source for insectivorous forest birds (Holmes and Shultz 1988) and their control can have adverse effects on chick development and adult behaviour and energetics (Powell 1984). In the latter part of the 1960's and the 1970's, the species made near-regular appearances every other winter, in good numbers, and even in off years, a few were reported. Welsh. Avian Conservation and Ecology 4:3. Moreover, the practice of harvesting Balsam Fir and replanting with faster-growing species such as Black Spruce (Picea mariana) or Jack Pine (Pinus banksiana) in eastern Canada may reduce availability of suitable habitat for Evening Grosbeak through changing forest composition in favour of tree species known to be less susceptible to Spruce Budworm outbreaks (Morin et al. Hobson, K.A. 2015a). Pp 193-213 inS. Breeding birds of Ontario: nidiology and distribution. Incubation typically lasts 12 to 14 days, and fledglings leave the nest at 13 to 14 days old. Fraser, D. 1985. Association québécoise des groupes d’ornithologues, Société québécoise de protection des oiseaux, Canadian Wildlife Service, Environment Canada, Montreal, Québec, xviii + 1295 pp. Boreal Avian Modeling Project. Not applicable, as the population greatly exceeds thresholds. Estimated number of birds killed by house cats (Felis catus) in Canada. Morin, H., D. Laprise, A.-A. Technical Report Series No. In the Montane Boreal White and Black Spruce biogeoclimatic subzone of British Columbia, budworm development is limited by cool and wet summers (Burleigh et al. Écoscience 7:267-280. Van Frankenhuyzen, K. 1993. Anderson, S. Ganguly, R.R. Lumley, L.M. Bird Studies Canada. Plummer, D.A., D. Caya, A. Frigon, H. Côté, M. Giguère, D. Paquin, S. Biner, R. Harvey, and R. de Elia, 2006: Climate and Climate Change over North America as Simulated by the Canadian RCM. Map showing the year-round range (shaded areas) of the Evening Grosbeak in North America. Scott, A.C. and M. Bekoff. 2000). It highlights how much the interpretation of a short-term trend depends on the particular year of assessment, and whether the trend changes over time (Smith, pers. Bird Studies Canada (BSC). These regulations generally prohibit the hunt, capture, holding in captivity or selling of wildlife and to destroy or damage nests and eggs. La tordeuse des bourgeons de l’épinette. Oecologia 81:67-74. All the same, because these limitations remain consistent over time and the BBS has a standardized design and relatively stable extent of coverage, the BBS is believed to be valuable for assessing Evening Grosbeak trends. However, Evening Grosbeak was reported among the ten species most frequently killed by window strikes in North America (Klem 1989, Dunn 1993), and Dunn (1993) reported that Evening Grosbeak represented 3.7% of mortalities reported in the winter of 1989-1990 (n=945). Predicting the effects of climate change on fire frequency in the south-eastern Canadian boreal forest. 2008. There is one clutch per year with an average size of 3 to 4 eggs; re-nesting may occur if the initial clutch fails. Anthony, R.G., G.A. thesis, University of Idaho, Moscow, Idaho. Studies in Avian Biology 15:191-201. The economic value of Evening Grosbeak predation on Spruce Budworm in Washington State was estimated at between $790 and $1,270/km2 in 1979, more than half of the per-km2 cost of spraying with the insecticide Sevin-4-oil ($1,820/km2; Takekawa and Garton 1984). This latter trend appears to have started around 1997, following the long declining trend documented from 1970 (Figure 6). Sutherland, G.G. Québec, Quebec, Canada. 1975. The range expansion has also been linked to extensive planting of Manitoba Maple (Acer negundo) as windbreaks in the Prairies and as an ornamental tree in eastern cities in the early 1900s (Taverner 1921; Erskine 1992), the increase of Pin Cherry (Prunus pensylvanica)due to large areas of fires and forest clearing in the early 1900s (Brunton 1994) and the increased number of bird feeders installed in inhabited regions throughout North America (Root and Weckstein1994). At each CBC, observers record all species observed within a 24-km diameter circle on a single day between December 14 and January 5 (Sauer et al. During winter, spring and probably fall, when Evening Grosbeaks are attracted to roads to feed on grit and road salt, collisions with vehicles have been known to be important at least locally (Wilson 1981; Campbell et al. Pages 633-691 in D.F. BBS data from Canada suggest that abundance is greatest in southern British Columbia and the Maritime provinces (up to 15 birds/route), intermediate in Ontario and Quebec, and lowest in the Prairie provinces (<2.8 birds/route) (Environment Canada 2014; Figure 5). Flight calls usually associated with C.v. vespertinus have never been reported west of the Rockies in British Columbia, suggesting a geographical segregation between C.v. vespertinus and C.v. brooksi (Sewall et al. Life histories of North American cardinals, grosbeaks, buntings, towhees, finches, sparrows, and their allies. Project FeederWatch [accessed October 2015]. British Columbia Naturalist19:18-19. Historical and spatial characteristics of Spruce Budworm Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.) 2003; Schieck and Song 2006; Venier et al. 2015. PIF Technical Series No. Adult males have a dark brown head with a bold yellow supercilium; the brown of the head blends to a bright yellow belly and scapulars, contrasting with a short black tail and black wings with a large white patch on the secondaries. Evening Grosbeak population trends are currently provided for the period 1987-2007 (Government of Canada 2008). PFW is a long-term North American winter survey of birds (since 1976) that visits feeders at backyards and elsewhere. Data were gathered by volunteers in 10x10 km squares during the breeding season (Cadman et al. Huso. The Condor 102:759-769. The timing of the onset of spring migration of Evening Grosbeak is variable and can be difficult to ascertain because of the mixing of local residents and winter visitors. In Montana, the Evening Grosbeak breeds in coniferous forests of western Montana. Natural Spruce Budworm outbreaks may reverse the decline temporarily in some regions. ("Evening Grosbeak", 2016) Range lifespan Status: wild 16 (high) years; Behavior. Since around 2010, checklists filled by birders on eBird (2015) also provide valuable data on Evening Grosbeak distribution in Canada. 1-6 in J.V. (1977) reported that the enzyme cholinesterase is suppressed in Evening Grosbeaks in treated forests. In the western United States and in Saskatchewan, some studies suggest that Evening Grosbeak is generally absent from second-growth forests in which clearcutting of mature and old-growth stands has occurred (Hutto et al. In Ontario, the spatial distribution of historical defoliation by Spruce Budworm was found to be related to winter maximum and minimum temperatures, forest content of Balsam Fir and White Spruce, and spring and summer minimum temperatures (Candeau and Fleming 2011). 1996). Parks Canada. 2008). Behavioral flexibility of Pine Siskins in mixed species foraging groups, Vigilance, flock size, and flock geometry: information gathering by western Evening Grosbeaks (Aves, Fringillidae). Unlike the BBS however, it does not systematically cover the same sectors from year to year, and is therefore subject to a larger detection bias. It’s the least you can do. Canadian Veterinary Journal 41:54-59. Regroupement QuébecOiseaux. Road salts and birds: an assessment of the risk with particular emphasis on winter finch mortality. 2016. Winter survey data reveal range-wide decline in Evening Grosbeak populations. In the United States, there was a significant decline of -2.7% per year from 1970 to 2014, equating to a 70% population decline over 44 years (Smith pers. During the twentieth century, Spruce Budworm outbreaks in eastern Canada occurred in 1910-1920, 1945-1955, and 1968-1985 and increased in intensity over time, defoliating approximately 10, 25, and 55 million hectares, respectively (Morin et al. Chart illustrating the 10-year rolling trend in Evening Grosbeak abundance between 1980 and 2014 in Canada based on Breeding Bird Survey data. Provinces with highest outbreaks areas were Manitoba, Alberta, and Ontario (Price et al. Breeding biology of Evening Grosbeaks. Lives of North American Birds. According to Parks Canada’s Biotics Database, Evening Grosbeak is present (during the breeding season, migration or year round) in 14 protected areas managed by the Parks Canada Agency (Parks Canada 2013). DeWeese. Myneni, F.S. (Species at Risk Public Registry website). Bird-Banding 25:87-94. [accessed August 2016]. 1951. Chart illustrating change in the annual abundance index of Evening Grosbeaks in Quebec between 1970 and 2014 according to the Checklist program in Quebec. Relationships between change in fire frequency and mortality due to Spruce Budworm outbreak in the southeastern Canadian boreal forest. 2014. November 2014. There are no specific data on the age at which Evening Grosbeak reaches sexual maturity (Gillihan and Byers, 2001), but it likely breeds in the first spring following hatching, similarly to other boreal songbirds of its size. How well do regional or national Breeding Bird Survey data predict songbird population trends at an intact boreal site? Ecological Applications 21:122-136. Ives, W.G.H. and R.A. Fleming. Each morning during the fall migratory period (August 24 -November 25), birds are visually counted for 5 hours when they pass over an observer located on the coast of the St. Lawrence River (Explos-Nature 2016). 2009). 1983; Takekawa and Garton 1984). Morin et al. Campbell, R.W., N.K. Cheshire, C.A. Zoom in to see how this species’s current range will shift, expand, and contract under increased global temperatures. Betancourt, and W.D. Cited in Fenitrothion: the effects of its use on environmental quality and its chemistry. Journal of Applied Ecology 21:83-95. Edmonton, Alberta. Presse de l’Université du Québec, Québec City, Québec. Evening Grosbeak is a stocky, boldly coloured songbird, with a massive greenish-yellow bill. 1 or 2 broods per year. 2001). Since the 1900s, Evening Grosbeak is also known to have adapted to the large scale planting of ornamental Manitoba Maples as farm windbreaks as well as in parks, along roadsides and in cities in eastern Canada (Taverner 1921; Forbush 1929; Speirs 1968; Gillihan and Byers 2001). The Condor 110:376-381. Differences in bird species richness and abundance among three successional stages of aspen-dominated boreal forests. The Atlas of the Breeding Birds of British Columbia, 2008-2012. 1999. 2009. Kardynal, and P.A. As you enter the large home you notice the wood laminate floors throughout the living space and transitions great into the open tiled kitchen. Species designated at meetings of the full committee are added to the list. Influences of climatic change on some ecological processes of an insect outbreak system in Canada's boreal forests and the implications for biodiversity. Presses de l’Université du Québec, Québec, 568 pp. Canadian Endangered Species Conservation Council (CESCC). Over the past decades, some data suggest a further decline of nearly 40%, while other data indicate stabilization at a lower level. Peck, G.K. and R.D. From 2002-2012, the North American trend was a non-significant increase of 3.1% per year (95% CI: -1.5 to 8.8; A. Smith, unpubl. Recapture data (n=10 birds) from across eastern Canada indicate that 80% of birds had dispersed up to 950 km from the previous year’s breeding sites, suggesting that this species shows little breeding site fidelity (Brewer et al. 2000), although declines in recent decades have greatly reduced frequency of observation and banding. Evening Grosbeak is well known for its gregarious behaviour in winter where wintering groups of more than 250 birds can be seen (eBird 2015), especially at bird feeders. (2008) also argue that large-scale clear-cutting, replanting with White Spruce (a tree more susceptible to budworm), and fire suppression may have contributed to larger expanses of susceptible forest, thus leading to bigger budworm outbreaks. 1979. Mott. Fire suppression could actually affect the Spruce Budworm which would actually have a positive affect on the habitat for this species. National Forestry Database [accessed October 2014]. The effects on Evening Grosbeak may therefore be negligible, but should be studied in more detail. 56 pp. Cause and effect: changes in boreal bird irruptions in eastern North America relative to the 1970s Spruce Budworm infestation. Cooper, G.W. Pale blue to blue-green, blotched with brown, gray, purple. These abundance estimates likely correspond to normal population levels between peaks of Spruce Budworm outbreaks because data are mostly available for years with low to intermediate Spruce Budworm abundances. 2014). Desrochers, A., C. Renaud, W.M. McNicholl and J.L. Environment Canada. 1989. Ithaca, New York. In the southwestern Northwest Territories, the Evening Grosbeak breeding population showed a non-significant declining trend (-2.8% per year ± 8.2, p=0.719) between 1998 and 2011, a pattern that follows a quadratic trend (Machtans et al. It is unknown what percentage of Evening Grosbeaks visit feeders. (2001), Peck and James (1987), Kennedy et al. Water, Air, and Soil Pollution82:437-444. The purpose of PFW is to monitor movements of winter bird populations across North America and to identify long-term trends in species abundance and distribution. Email correspondence to C. Savignac. 1997, CHAPTER 41. In Ontario, it breeds in coniferous forests across northern Ontario, as far south as southern Georgian Bay. Wildlife Society Bulletin 33:835-841. The same climate change-driven threats that put birds at risk will affect other wildlife and people, too. M.Sc. Synchronous eruptions of boreal seed-eating birds. Rimouski, Québec. Because there are no reliable abundance data from periods prior to Spruce Budworm outbreaks (i.e., before 1970), it is not possible to determine whether the current population is depressed or at levels which are normal for non-outbreak periods (Hoffman 2009). Fall migratory movements in Evening Grosbeak have been associated with variability in the food supply in the boreal forest, notably coniferous cone production (Bock and Lepthien 1976; Koenig and Knops 2001; Venier et al. 307-314 in M.K. less than annual in occurrence (Brogie 2006). The most accepted explanation for the Evening Grosbeak range expansion is the increase in intensity and size of Spruce Budworm outbreaks in the eastern Canada during the first decades of the 1900s (Ouellet 1974; Bolgiano 2004). 2014. Let us send you the latest in bird and conservation news. Also feeds on buds of deciduous trees, berries, small fruits, weed seeds. Overall, Evening Grosbeak is found in British Columbia from sea level to high mountainous forest (i.e., up to 1950 m), mainly where the density of berries and seeds is high (Martell 2015). Conner. Phoenix. McNicol, and D.A. Given that many road mortalities are unreported, this may be a larger factor than has been documented (Mineau and Brownlee 2005). Klem, Jr., D. 1989. According to the IUCN Red List, it is considered a species of least concern (IUCN, 2015). Since the early 1900s (Taverner 1921), it has expanded its range to eastern Canada (Bolgiano 2004). Aggression, dominance, and social organization in Evening Grosbeaks. Bock, C.E. They include conjunctivitis caused by Mycoplasma gallisepticum (Mikaelian et al. The Checklist program in Quebec began in 1969. Reproduction by an altricial songbird, the Red-winged Blackbird, in fields treated with the organophosphate insecticide fenthion. The extent of BBS coverage in North America and relative abundance data over the period 1987-2006 is shown in Figure 5. The Evening Grosbeak in Canada. Thesis, School of Life Sciences, Wildlife Biology and Conservation, Edinburgh Napier University, Scotland. 1979). Fleming, R.A. and J.N. comm. At the local scale, the West Nile virus has also caused mortality in Evening Grosbeak in the eastern United States (Komar 2003). The rolling trend graph plots a series of 10-year trend values ending in each year over a specific period, thereby showing how the trends change over time. Blancher, and R.D. However, Evening Grosbeak was reported among the ten species most frequently killed by window strikes in North America (Klem 1989, Dunn 1993), and Dunn (1993) reported that Evening Grosbeak represented 3.7% of mortalities reported in the winter of 1989-1990 (n=945). Whitaker, and I.G.Warkentin. Recent data analysis from this project suggest that the average flock size of Evening Grosbeak at feeders has fluctuated somewhat between 1990 and 2014, but in most regions showing only a small overall decline; the percentage of feeders visited by Evening Grosbeaks was greatest in western provinces, with particularly high values between 1989 and 1993 (Figure 8; Cornell University 2015). Smith, A., pers. U.S. National Museum Bulletin 237, Part 1. 2003), the Skeena River area in British Columbia (Martell 2015), Fort Liard in the Northwest Territories (Gillihan and Byers 2001), La Crète in Alberta (Federation of Alberta Naturalists 2007), Cree Lake in Saskatchewan, Opasquia Provincial Park and Moosonee in Ontario (Hoar 2007), southern Hudson Bay and the Mingan Archipelago National Park of Canada Reserve in Quebec (Atlas of the breeding birds of Quebec [ABBQ] 2014), most of the island of Newfoundland, and the Maritime provinces (BSC 2015). 2007. Furthermore, a recent analysis indicates that the BBS annual abundance index for Evening Grosbeak in Canada was positively correlated with the total area of forest defoliated by the Spruce Budworm over the 1974-2012 period (generalized least squares regression with errors following a first-order temporal autoregressive process, β = 0.00057, SE = 0.00013, P≤ 0.0001; Figure 18; M. Bélisle unpubl. Observations in Montana Natural Heritage Program Database Number of Observations:3362 Cannings, R.A., R.J. Cannings, and S.G. Cannings. Aside from the rebound in numbers at Tadoussac since 2012, the trend generally correlates with EPOQ data, which also show numbers fluctuating around a steady low level after a peak in 1997. Wells (ed.). PhD dissertation, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta. 2. 1989). Across Canada, the largest population of Evening Grosbeak is in British Columbia with an estimated 600,000 breeding adults, corresponding largely to C.v. brooksi (Table 2). [accessed December 2014]. In winter, flocks of Evening Grosbeaks are often observed along roadsides ingesting salt particles and grit (Campbell et al. 2008. Results from this program show a negative but not significant decline in Ontario from 1987 to 2007 (-1.4% per year, 95% CI: -13.7, 12.8; Government of Canada 2008). Irregular migrant. Salmonellosis in songbirds in the Canadian Atlantic provinces during winter-summer 1997-98. Overall impact calculated for this threat is low, as scope for this threat over the next ten years is considered small, although it is ongoing and on a local scale, severity can be serious to moderate. Maritimes Breeding Bird Atlas. Classification of Threats adopted from IUCN-CMP, Salafsky et al. According to the Partners in Flight Population Estimates database (Partners in Flight Science Committee 2013), which is based on a combination of BBS count data from 1998-2007 and Ontario Breeding Bird Atlas point counts from 2001-2005 (Blancher et al. Carothers, S.W., N.J. Sharber, and G.F. Foster. Audubon’s scientists have used 140 million bird observations and sophisticated climate models to project how climate change will affect this bird’s range in the future. Royal Ontario Museum, Toronto, Ontario. In the United States, the species breeds primarily in northern New England and some western states. Senior Biostatistician, Environmental Stewardship Branch, Canadian Wildlife Service, Ottawa, Ontario. Dover, New York. 2015b). Ecology 81:2753-2766. The Atlas of Breeding Birds of Alberta: A Second Look. data). In British Columbia, the highest probability of observation occurs in the Southern Interior Ecoprovince, spilling into neighbouring portions of the Coast and Mountains, Southern Interior Mountains and Central Interior ecoprovinces (Martell 2015). Except when nesting, usually forages in flocks. Campbell et al. National Museum of Natural Sciences, Ottawa, Ontario. 1958; Blais and Parks 1964; Speirs, 1968; Ouellet 1974; Crawford et al. 1998. Mortality related to ingestion of sodium chloride along roadsides may also be a threat. Bird predation and Spruce Budworm populations. Evening grosbeaks like oil-type and striped sunflower seeds at the feeder. 2015b. 2007). (1999) and Gauthier and Aubry (1995). Dawe, I. McTaggart-Cowan, J.M. McCorquodale, D. 2015. The importance of tree seed-crops in winter, particularly of the genera Acer, Pinus, Cornus, Prunus, and Juniperus have been also reported by other studies (Martin et al. Canadian Wildlife Service, Ottawa, Ontario. Impact calculated for this potential threat is ranked as unknown as the scope and the severity are considered unknown. 1999. Étude des populations d'oiseaux du Québec (Version 2014-10-27) [databases]. The other two maps (of southeastern Ontario and Ontario as a whole) indicate cells in which Evening Grosbeak was found only in the first atlas period (1980 to 1985), and cells in which the birds were found only in the second atlas period (2001 to 2005). Intensity of Spruce Budworm outbreaks is likely to be reduced in the near future in the commercial forests due to new approaches that are currently being assessed to control Spruce Budworm, such as remote sensing techniques to detect forest stands that are vulnerable to budworm defoliation (i.e., old and mature Balsam Fir stands). Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 49:235-249. In Canada, Evening Grosbeak is unlikely to be confused with other passerine species due to its distinctive colouration and large bill. In contrast, C.v. vespertinus banded in Ontario spent other winters from Michigan east to the Atlantic Coast, overlapping broadly with wintering birds captured from the Prairie provinces (Brewer et al. Fee, B.A. Factors that trigger outbreaks include generally consecutive dry summers or spring and autumn droughts (Ives 1974). Royal Ontario Museum. There are a number of known predators of adult Evening Grosbeaks, including domestic cats (Bekoff 1995; Blancher 2013) and several diurnal and nocturnal raptors (Gillihan and Byers 2001). Bolgiano, N.C. 2004. Prevention measures are being taken in QC and NB for Spruce Budworm (spraying, selective logging). Evening Grosbeak, pp. Koenig and Knops (2001) found that Evening Grosbeaks irrupt out of their normal winter range when the seed-crop productivity of coniferous trees (mainly from genera Abies, Picea, and Pinus) is low, which happens every 2-3 years. Email correspondence to C. Savignac. Pardieck, D.J. Mikaelian, I., D.H. Ley, R. Claveau, M. Lemieux, and J-P. Bérubé. 1992. In eastern Canada, Spruce Budworm outbreaks are linked to the presence of mature and old Balsam Fir stands (Morin et al. 1964. 2007). 2013. Gillihan, S.W. In Canada, its distribution includes all Canadian provinces and territories except Nunavut. Gosse, J., L. Hermanutz, B. McLaren, P. Deering, and T. Knight. 1995. Canadian Journal of Zoology 68:2235-2242. The Evening Grosbeak in New York City [1917] Walking along the path by the upper lake near the Botanical Garden Museum, on the morning of Nov. 23, of this year (1917), I passed almost under three male Evening Grosbeaks. Government of Canada. 1976. There are no data on whether EVGR is affected by wind turbines. Evening Grosbeak in Davidson, P.J.A., R.J. Cannings, A.R. 2014. 2000). IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland. 2004; Siegel et al. Conner. Candau, J.N. Technical Report Series. A review of the interaction between forest birds and eastern Spruce Budworm. 342. Was a threats calculator completed for this species and if so, by whom? The evening grosbeak is one North American species whose numbers and range actually increased after European settlement. Choose a temperature scenario below to see which threats will affect this species as warming increases. In Ontario, Millikin and Smith (1990) and Millikin (1990) have noted that fenitrothion did affect forest arthropods density and forest bird behaviour but had no long-term effect on populations. Haiman, A.N.K. data). biotype reactions to forest and climate characteristics. Beck, D. Lepage, and A.R. Spread the word. Venier, L.A. Unpubl. This 3,291 square foot house sits on a 0.25 acre lot and features 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. 2010. 1951; Gillihan and Byers 2001). 2011. Evening Grosbeak is considered secure (N5) in Canada (NatureServe, 2015; Table 5). Flannigan, J. Walsh, and J. Melillo. Regroupement QuébecOiseaux, Environment Canada’s Canadian Wildlife Service and Bird Studies Canada. 1998. For species such as Evening Grosbeak with fluctuating annual numbers, a “rolling trend” graph can provide a more effective overview of trends than the standard 10-year trend based just on end points.
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